Six Pack of Picks: Is LSU Ducked?

Week one picks for the weekend

For those of you who don’t know, I’m much more fo a straight picks kind guy. I take note of the spreads when I’m looking around but I rarely, if ever, will give advice or take a shot at predicting against the spread. I’ll leave that to guys like Adam Kramer from Kegs N Eggs, who will be joining me today on Blog Talk Radio to discuss just that!

Here are my picks in six games I’m watching this weekend. Feel free to share your picks in the comments section below. I’ll keep track of everyone to see how we all do. Perhaps I can organize a prize for the winner at the end of the season. So be sure to get your picks in every Friday!

Baylor vs. #14 TCU
Crystal Ball Run Dirty Dozen Picks

As I said on Crystal Ball Run yesterday, I think TCU should be on high alert Friday night in Waco. The Horned Frogs have a umber of question marks with their roster this season and it may take some time to figure everything out. Walking in to a revenge situation with Robert Griffin III and Baylor could be bad timing for Gary Patterson’s team. I think TCU will be in for a tougher bout this time compared to last season, but I think when all is said and done they pull out a win against the Big 12 team.

Pick: TCU 24, Baylor 23

#3 Oregon vs. #4 LSU (Cowboys Stadium)
Examiner.com Round Table  | Crystal Ball Run Dirty Dozen Picks

Without a doubt, the game of the week, regardless of suspension issues. Heading in to the game I would have been all over LSU here but then some players decided it would be fun to go get involved in a bar fight. That’s never a good thing, and now LSU is faced to go in to this game without starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson. Wide receiver Russell Shepard was already ruled out for the game too. LSU’s defense may be able to slow down Oregon’s offense a tad, but it won’t be enough with LaMichael James ready to bust out his 2011 Heisman campaign in style.

I’m going Ducks, but in a lower scoring game than some might expect.

Pick: Oregon 24, LSU 17

#5 Boise State vs. #19 Georgia (Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game)
Examiner.com Round Table | Crystal Ball Run Dirty Dozen Picks

This is a monster game for both teams. If Boise State loses, the BCS dreams are pretty much shot. If Georgia loses, MArk Richt’s job security weakens and the Bulldogs are in the face of a possible 0-2 start to the season. I suspect both quarterbacks will play well, with Kellen Moore a Heisman candidate from the start and Georgia’s Aaron Murray one of the younger stars in the passing game in the nation. I give a slight edge to Georgia just because of the relative home field advantage in Atlanta but I am well aware of Boise State’s history of not caring about going up against the big boys. This should be a fun game.

Pick: Georgia 28, Boise State 24

#16 Notre Dame vs. South Florida
Crystal Ball Run Dirty Dozen Picks

I placed Notre Dame on upset alert for this game and here’s why. South Florida has B.J. Daniels, a tremendous athlete under center who is more than capable of taking advantage of an opposing defense’s mistakes. Notre Dame’s defense is supposed to be improving under Brian Kelly, and we’ll see if that is true as the season progresses. Notre Dame’s offense should be able to move the ball without too much of a problem against South Florida but I expect South Florida to stand tall in this contest and hang in there until the end.

Pick: Notre Dame 31, South Florida 24

#8 Texas A&M vs. SMU
Crystal Ball Run Dirty Dozen Picks

Again, I put the Aggies on notice in my Crystal Ball Run upset alert this week, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think they will lose. I think Texas A&M will be able to pull away from SMU because I just don’t think SMU has the defense that is ready to slow down a decent offense yet. I think Kyle Padron is a fine quarterback but he will have his work cut out for him to get everything done against Texas A&M. It certainly wouldn’t shock me to see SMU have life in the fourth quarter, but that’s more because I’m not buying in to the Aggie hype at this point. But I’m not stupid.* Aggies win this one.

Pick: Texas A&M 30, SMU 17

Ole Miss vs. BYU

I had this game in the Crystal Ball Run Dirty Dozen. Here is what I wrote there:

BYU hopes that life as an independent has its rewards, but opening the year in SEC territory is never easy.  Houston Nutt’s team returns nine offensive starters but it is the defense that could hold the Rebels back. Ole Miss allowed an average of 35 points per game. That’s good news for Bronco Mendenhall’s team, which returns ten offensive starters and is looking to pick up the scoring this season and getting back to the BYU norm. Look for JJ Di Luigi to find some holes in the running game, and and punch in a couple touchdowns for BYU.

Pick: BYU 32, Ole Miss 28

* Not scientifically proven. I have had plenty of people on Twitter suggest I am in fact pretty stupid.

Bowl Predictions – Allstate Sugar Bowl

Overall: 9-4

Last night’s Orange Bowl was a bit more lopsided that I expected it to be. So far the BCS games have mostly been a dud in terms of competition, with the Rose Bowl between TCU and Wisconsin holding the mantle right now. Two straight blowouts leave a lot to be desired heading in to tonight’s Sugar Bowl match-up.

Ohio State (11-1) vs. Arkansas (10-2)

Preview

I thinkt this is the game Ohio State fans have been waiting for. the losing streak against the SEC ends tonight. It’s not that I like this Ohio State team and I still think when the pressure is on that they are more prone to crumble than succeed but last year’s Rose Bowl victory against what was thought to be a pretty good Oregon team set the tone for Ohio State. Celebrate tonight Buckeye fans, for Ohio State will finally put one in the win column against the SEC, but Arkansas’ passing game is going to be a tough challenge all night, so be prepared to hold your breath.

Bowl Predictions – Discover Orange Bowl

Overall: 8-4

I blame myself for missing out on posting my official predictions for the New Year’s eve and New Year’s Day bowl games, but things happen and I was unable to get to do much posting after Christmas. Anyway, going back to my previous picks I am now 8-4 in official bowl game predictions. I went 2-1 with my picks for the Military Bowl, Alamo Bowl and Texas Bowl. Now let’s see how I do with the Orange Bowl, which will be played tonight in Miami.

Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Stanford (11-1)

Preview

This game has a couple of players I love to see play. Quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech) and Andrew Luck (Stanford) bring dual threat ability to any game and should lead some pretty sound offensive game plans tonight. I believe Luck is the better all-around quarterback. I like Luck’s passing better than Taylor’s but I like Taylor’s running slightly better than Luck’s. As much as I love these two offensive players I am looking for the defenses to step up and make some plays.

Stanford ranks tenth in the nation in scoring defense (17.8 points per game) but how flawed is that number? I’m not big on the Pac 10 and I tend to think their defensive numbers can be a little misleading at times, but giving up fewer than 18 points per game in a conference that tends to have some high scoring games and includes 52 points given up to Oregon is saying something. It is a testament to the style of play head coach Jim Harbaugh brings to the program. the Hokies also are allowing fewer than 20 points per game (19.1 ppg). Can the Hokies slow down the Cardinal passing game? Virginia Tech ranks 32nd against the pass by allowing 199.3 passing yards per game and have the third most interceptions (22) in the nation.

This is a tough call for me, but I have faith in Luck to do what he needs to do to pick up a bowl victory when needed. I’m going with Stanford tonight. What about you?

Bowl Predictions – Military Bowl, Texas Bowl and Valero Alamo Bowl

Overall: 6-3

I took a beating last night between my picks in the Champs Sports Bowl and the Insight Bowl. Kudos to you N.C. State and Iowa for showing me up with solid victories against what I believed to be superior opponents. We have three bowl games on the schedule for today, and I will be on hand for one of them to cover it live. Be sure to check in during a special pregame chat prior to the Military Bowl today between Maryland and East Carolina. Because I’ll be covering the game I will likely miss the bulk of, if not all of, the two bowl games taking place in Texas.

Here are my quick picks. Let me know how you feel about the games today.

East Carolina (6-6) vs. Maryland (8-4)

Preview

This is Maryland’s final game with Ralph Friedgen on the sidelines regardless of the fact he was named the 2010 ACC Coach of the Year and coached the Terps to the largest turn around in program history. Maryland’s administration clearly has a higher vision in their eyesight and feels that Friedgen is holding them back. I don’t see it, nor do I agree with the firing, but I do expect that Maryland will come out to play for their head coach with a lot of energy this afternoon in the nation’s capital.

I’m picking Maryland in this one and hope you will join my pregame chat form the press box at RFK Stadium.

Baylor (7-5) vs. Illinois (6-6)

Preview

Both Baylor and Illinois have offenses that should be fun to watch but both teams struggled down the stretch of the regular season. Having seen Illinois in person this year I know that Ron Zook is not going to be afraid to pull out all the stops in this match-up against the Bears, but the question is whether or not they will be able to catch Baylor by surprise. If not, then Illinois could be in trouble. I love Baylor’s offense when they are clicking and think that Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III is a player worth tuning in to see. But Illinois has an interesting quarterback as well with Nathan Scheelhaase.

I’ll go with the Bears to snap a three game losing streak, playing closer to home than the Illini.

Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5)

Preview

Regardless of what happens in the Texas Bowl, I think the day ends on a high note for the Big 12 conference, who once thought that Oklahoma State could  be leaving the conference for the Pac 10 (well, maybe not but it was a fun rumor while it lasted). Oklahoma State’s top-ranked offense should have a good night as Arizona’s defense will have a tough time slowing them down. Arizona’s defense is not bad but I have little faith in Pac 10 defenses over the past few years and until one of those western teams can come up big in a big game on defense, then I’m likely to pick against them.

Oklahoma State cruises.

Bowl Predictions – Insight Bowl, Champs Sports Bowl

Overall: 6-1

I missed making an official predicion on a pair of games over the holiday weekend with the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl (won by Florida International) and Independence Bowl (won by Air Force) so my record stays at 6-1 for those keeping track. For the record, if I did post an official prediction I would have gone with Toledo in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl and Air Force in the Independence Bowl so I feel I should be at 7-2. But a busy week gets started today with a pair of bowl games between teams from the big conferences.

The Big Ten, Big East, ACC and Big 12 are all represented in today’s bowl games, so let’s see how I do as the games get tougher.

West Virginia (9-3) vs. N.C. State (8-4)

Preview

Every time I jump on the N.C. State band wagon, Russell Wilson seems to throw an interception. I still like Wilson and the Wolfpack, who I feel made a giant stride forward in the ACC this season, but I just happen to like West Virginia a little bit more. Regardless of the Bill Stewart situation, in which he appears to being forced out after next season, and the fact that running back Noel Devine had a mediocre season compared to the previous two seasons, the Mountianeers have a very good defense and the ability to score some points when needed.

I think West Virginia ends the season on a winning note to improve the Big East to 2-0 in the bowl season and dropping the ACC to 0-2 (updated conference bowl standings).

Iowa (7-5) vs. #12 Missouri (10-2)

Preview

Iowa is nowhere where I expected them to be this season and things do not appear to be ready to change around just yet. Faced with dealing with legal issues to a couple of the top offensive players on the team, wide receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and running back Adam Robinson, quarterback Ricky Stanzi will be pressed to make things happen for Iowa tonight against a talented Missouri defense. The Tigers have allowed just over two touchdowns a game this season, which is certainly not good for Iowa’s weakened offense.

Honestly, even with Johnson-Koulianos and Robinson lining up for the Hawkeyes, I’d be picking Missouri. I’m just even more confident in Missouri right now. So I’m picking Missouri.