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McGuire Metric

Looking for a way to compare strength of schedule in a simple way, I decided to assign a point value to wins that could be used to add up for specific teams or conferences. It is incredibly simple in concept. I have no clue how effective it really is, but I am going to let it play out this season and see what the results are. I go into this admitting upfront there are potential flaws in the system, but I will look back and assess how the system can be adjusted in the offseason.

I call it the McGuire Metric, neglecting the possibility that naming it after myself is both narcissistic and could be leading to eventual ridicule down the road. Here is how it works.

A point value ranging from 20 points to half a point is assigned for various degrees of difficulty. Only wins are counted, except wins against lower-division opponents (Example: Florida State gets credit for beating Oklahoma State but does not receive points for defeating Florida A&M). The more difficult the game match-up is, the higher the possible points to be earned. Games played on the road or on a neutral field receive more points than playing at home. Games played against higher-ranked teams also yield more points. At the end of the week, all points are added up for an overall score. This can be done for individual schools for an entire season or by conference. When calculating conference scores, I only track non-conference results.

Here is how the point total breaks down…

  • 20 = Win over top 1-3 team on road
  • 19 = Win over top 1-3 team on neutral field
  • 18 = Win over top 1-3 team
  • 17 = Win over top 4-5 team on road
  • 16 = Win over top 4-5 team on neutral field
  • 15 = Win over top 4-5 team
  • 14 = Win over top 6-10 team on road
  • 13 = Win over top 6-10 team on neutral field
  • 12 = Win over top 6-10 team
  • 11 = Win over top 11-15 team on road
  • 10 = Win over top 11-15 team on neutral field
  • 9 = Win over top 11-15 team
  • 8 = Win over top 16-25 team on road
  • 7 = Win over top 16-20 team on neutral field
  • 6 = Win over top 16-20 team
  • 5 = Win over top 21-25 team on road
  • 4 = Win over top 21-25 team on neutral field
  • 3 = Win over top 21-25 team at home
  • 2 = Win on road
  • 1 = Win on neutral field
  • 0.5 = Win at home
  • 0.5 = Win against power conference (bonus point)

 

Teams may receive one standard point grade for each win, depending on the opponent. An extra half a point is added to a score for a win coming against a power conference opponent. For the purposes of my scoring, I include Notre Dame and BYU in this power conference mix, but not Army or Navy. Rankings are determined by Associated Press rankings at the time the game was played through Week 9 of the season. Starting in Week 10, the ranking system used switches to the College Football Playoff rankings released by the selection committee for the College Football Playoff.

Top Performers in 2014

Most Valuable Wins of 2014